How a Plant Extract Became a Billion-Dollar Retinol Rival
The marketing pitch is seductive: a plant-based compound derived from the seeds of Psoralea corylifolia (babchi), used in Ayurvedic and Chinese medicine for centuries, that delivers the anti-aging benefits of retinol without the irritation, peeling, sun sensitivity, or pregnancy concerns. Meet bakuchiol, the ingredient that launched a thousand "vegan retinol" serums.1
The bakuchiol formulations market crossed $1 billion in 2025 and is projected to exceed $3.6 billion by 2035. L'Oreal launched a dedicated bakuchiol skincare line in May 2025. The Ordinary, Herbivore Botanicals, and dozens of clean beauty brands have built entire product categories around it. Google searches for "bakuchiol" have risen steadily for five years. The anti-aging segment alone accounts for nearly 60% of all bakuchiol product revenue.2,3
Behind all of this sits one clinical trial. One. Published in 2019 in the British Journal of Dermatology, with 44 participants, over 12 weeks. It's cited in virtually every bakuchiol product page, every marketing deck, every influencer review. And it has significant methodological problems that the skincare industry has quietly decided to ignore.
What Bakuchiol Actually Is (And Isn't)
Bakuchiol is a meroterpene phenol, a plant-derived compound with a completely different molecular structure than retinol. This is the first critical distinction: bakuchiol is not a retinoid. It doesn't convert to retinoic acid. It doesn't bind to retinoic acid receptors. It doesn't work through the vitamin A pathway at all.4,5
Instead, bakuchiol appears to achieve some overlapping effects through entirely different mechanisms. A 2022 study in the International Journal of Cosmetic Science showed that bakuchiol triggers gene expression patterns similar to retinol, meaning it activates some of the same downstream effects (collagen stimulation, anti-inflammatory signaling) through different molecular triggers. Recent research identified that bakuchiol targets mitochondrial proteins, prohibitins, and voltage-dependent anion channels, none of which are traditional retinoid pathways.4,5,6
This "functional analogue" concept is genuinely interesting from a molecular biology perspective. But "activates some similar genes" is not the same as "works as well as retinol." The distance between gene expression data and clinical anti-aging outcomes is vast.
Bakuchiol is not retinol, doesn't act like retinol, and doesn't work through retinol's pathways. Calling it "natural retinol" is like calling a bicycle a "natural motorcycle" because they both have wheels.
Dr. Maren ColeWhat bakuchiol does have going for it, based on in vitro data: antioxidant activity (significantly stronger than retinol in DPPH assays), anti-inflammatory effects (reduced PGE2 and MIF in fibroblasts), stimulation of collagen types I and VII, increased fibronectin production, and enhanced epidermal regeneration in wound-healing models. Notably, bakuchiol showed wound-healing benefits that retinol did not in the same lab conditions.6
The Trial Everyone Cites
Design: 44 patients with facial photoaging randomized to either 0.5% bakuchiol cream (applied twice daily) or 0.5% retinol cream (applied once nightly) for 12 weeks. High-resolution photographs analyzed at 0, 4, 8, and 12 weeks. Blinded dermatologist graded pigmentation and redness.
Results: Both groups showed significant decreases in wrinkle surface area and hyperpigmentation. No statistically significant difference between bakuchiol and retinol. Retinol users reported more scaling and stinging. Bakuchiol users reported no adverse effects.7
The headline: "Bakuchiol is comparable with retinol in its ability to improve photoageing and is better tolerated." This sentence has sold a billion dollars worth of product.
At first glance, this is a solid result from a respected journal. Randomized. Double-blind. Head-to-head comparison. Published in the BJD. What's not to like?
Quite a lot, as it turns out.
Why the Evidence Doesn't Say What Marketing Claims
Problem #1: Wrong study design. The trial was designed as a superiority study (testing whether bakuchiol is better than retinol), but marketing claims it showed "comparable" efficacy. A non-inferiority study design is required to make that claim. As a superiority study, the result is null: bakuchiol failed to demonstrate superiority over retinol.8
Problem #2: Broken blinding. Retinol was applied once daily at night. Bakuchiol was applied twice daily. Participants could identify their treatment group by application frequency alone, undermining the "double-blind" claim.8
Problem #3: No vehicle control. Without a placebo group, it's impossible to determine how much improvement came from the active ingredients versus the moisturizing base cream itself. Both groups improved, but both groups were also moisturizing twice daily for 12 weeks.8
The verdict from Spierings: These studies represent "marketing studies: performed with an aim to promote bakuchiol rather than interrogate its effectiveness."
Retinol / Retinoids
Bakuchiol
The asymmetry is stark. Retinol's evidence base spans decades and hundreds of trials. Bakuchiol's rests primarily on two small studies, one of which has significant design flaws. Harvard Health: "File bakuchiol under 'promising, but unproven.'"8,9
The "Comparable" Fallacy
A null result in a superiority trial does not prove equivalence. To claim two treatments are "comparable," you need a non-inferiority design with pre-specified margins. This study didn't have one. The entire marketing narrative rests on a statistical misinterpretation.8
Contact Allergen Risk
At least one case report documents a full year of facial dermatitis from a 0.1% bakuchiol product. The "zero side effects" claim needs qualification. Bakuchiol's role as a potential contact allergen requires further study, particularly as concentrations increase.8
Pregnancy Safety: Plausible, Not Proven
Bakuchiol is widely marketed as pregnancy-safe because it's not a retinoid. This is reasonable based on mechanism of action, but there are no clinical studies confirming safety during pregnancy. The claim is inferred, not demonstrated.5
What It Actually Does Well
Bakuchiol has genuine antioxidant and anti-inflammatory properties, is photostable (can be used in daytime), enhances retinol stability when combined with it, and is legitimately gentler than retinoids. These are real advantages. They're just not "natural retinol."6
As the billion-dollar skincare industry continues its rapid growth, we must maintain the integrity of our profession and protect the consumer from being misled by critically appraising products that make significant medical claims.
Spierings, Journal of Cosmetic Dermatology (2020)A Good Ingredient With a Bad Narrative
Bakuchiol is a legitimately interesting cosmeceutical ingredient being sold under a false premise. The false premise is that it's a "natural retinol" with equivalent anti-aging power. It isn't. The evidence for that claim is a single, methodologically flawed, 44-person trial. Retinol has 50+ years of clinical data. Pretending the two are interchangeable is not supported by science.
But here's where I part ways with the pure skeptics: bakuchiol is still worth using for the right person. Its antioxidant profile is genuinely superior to retinol in lab assays. It's photostable, meaning you can use it during the day. It doesn't cause the irritation cascade that makes retinol intolerable for sensitive skin. And it may enhance retinol's stability and reduce its side effects when used alongside it.
If you can tolerate retinoids: Use them. The evidence base is incomparably stronger. Bakuchiol is not a substitute for tretinoin, adapalene, or even well-formulated OTC retinol if anti-aging is your primary goal.
If you cannot tolerate retinoids: Bakuchiol is a reasonable option for gentle antioxidant support and mild anti-aging. Set expectations appropriately. You're getting a good antioxidant with some collagen-stimulating potential, not a retinol replacement.
If you're pregnant or nursing: Bakuchiol is a plausible choice based on its non-retinoid mechanism, but "plausible" is not the same as "proven safe." Discuss with your OB-GYN.
Best use case: Bakuchiol combined with retinol, where it may stabilize the retinol and reduce irritation while adding antioxidant protection. This combination approach has more theoretical merit than bakuchiol as a standalone retinol replacement.
Bakuchiol is a plant-derived antioxidant with genuine benefits: anti-inflammatory, photostable, well-tolerated, and potentially synergistic with retinol. But the "natural retinol" narrative is built on a single 44-person trial with significant methodological flaws that a published commentary has called a "marketing study." Until properly designed non-inferiority trials demonstrate equivalence, bakuchiol remains a good supporting ingredient, not a retinol replacement. A billion-dollar market deserves more than one flawed study.
Sources
- Chopra B, et al. Psoralea corylifolia L. (Buguchi): Folklore to modern evidence. Fitoterapia. 2013;90:44. Historical use in Ayurvedic and Chinese medicine.
- Future Market Insights. Bakuchiol Formulations Market. 2025. Crossed $1B in 2025; projected $3.6B by 2035. Anti-aging segment: 58.6% of revenue.
- Zion Market Research. Global bakuchiol market valued at $7.34B (2024), projected $14.38B by 2034. L'Oreal bakuchiol skincare line launched May 2025.
- Chaudhuri RK, Bojanowski K. Bakuchiol: a retinol-like functional compound revealed by gene expression profiling. Int J Cosmet Sci. 2014;36:221-230.
- Comprehensive review of topical bakuchiol for photoaging treatment. J Integrative Dermatology. 2022;1(1). Non-retinoid pathways; pregnancy safety discussion.
- Balmert SC, et al. Multidirectional activity of bakuchiol against cellular mechanisms of facial ageing. Int J Cosmet Sci. 2022. In vitro/ex vivo/in vivo comparisons vs retinol. Superior antioxidant capacity; wound healing advantage.
- Dhaliwal S, et al. Prospective, randomized, double-blind assessment of topical bakuchiol and retinol for facial photoageing. Br J Dermatol. 2019;180(2):289-296. n=44, 12 weeks.
- Spierings NMK. Cosmetic commentary: is bakuchiol the new "skincare hero"? J Cosmet Dermatol. 2020. Methodological critique: wrong study design, broken blinding, no vehicle control, contact allergen case.
- Harvard Health Publishing. Bakuchiol: Does it make skin look younger? 2022. "File bakuchiol under 'promising, but unproven.'"
- Shoji M, et al. Bakuchiol targets mitochondrial proteins, prohibitins, and voltage-dependent anion channels. 2024. Non-RAR mechanism identification.
- Dermatology Advisor. Studies claiming bakuchiol new "skincare hero" have major methodologic flaws. May 2024. Summary of Spierings commentary and only 2 clinical studies to date.